According to the CCM, the cost-effectiveness of direct cash transfers is 2 DALY/k$. However, you calculated a significantly lower cost-effectiveness of 1.20 DALY/k$ (or 836 $/DALY) based on GiveWell’s estimates. The upper bound of the 90 % CI you use in the CCM actually matches the point estimate of 836 $/DALY you inferred from GiveWell’s estimates. Do you have reasons to believe GiveWell’s estimate is pessimistic?
We adopt a (mostly arbitrary) uncertainty distribution around this central estimate [inferred from GiveWell’s estimates].
I agree the distribution will have some arbitrariness, but I think the mean cost-effectiveness should still match the one corresponding to GiveWell’s estimates, as these are supposed to be interpreted as best guesses?
Because direct cash transfer are about 2 times as cost-effective in the CCM as for GiveWell, Open Phil’s bar equals GiveWell’s bar in the CCM, whereas I thought Open Phil bar was supposed to become 2 times as high as GiveWell’s after this update.
This gives it an average cost per expected DALY averted of $611.00 with a median cost per expected DALY averted of $649.1690% of simulations fall between $1.13 and $2.45.
These values that we included in the CCM for these interventions should probably be treated as approximate and only accurate to roughly an order of magnitude. These actual numbers may be a bit dated and probably don’t fully reflect current thinking about the marginal value of GHD interventions. I’ll talk with the team about whether they should be updated, but note that this wasn’t a deliberate re-evaluation of past work.
That said, it important to keep in mind that there are disagreements about what different kinds of effects are worth, such as Open Philanthropy’s reassessment of cash transfers (to which both they and GiveWell pin their effectiveness evaluations). We can’t directly compare OP’s self-professed bar with GiveWell’s self-professed bar as if the units are interchangeable. This is a complexity that is not well represented in the CCM. The Worldview Investigations team has not tried to adjudicate such disagreements over GHD interventions.
Hi,
According to the CCM, the cost-effectiveness of direct cash transfers is 2 DALY/k$. However, you calculated a significantly lower cost-effectiveness of 1.20 DALY/k$ (or 836 $/DALY) based on GiveWell’s estimates. The upper bound of the 90 % CI you use in the CCM actually matches the point estimate of 836 $/DALY you inferred from GiveWell’s estimates. Do you have reasons to believe GiveWell’s estimate is pessimistic?
I agree the distribution will have some arbitrariness, but I think the mean cost-effectiveness should still match the one corresponding to GiveWell’s estimates, as these are supposed to be interpreted as best guesses?
Because direct cash transfer are about 2 times as cost-effective in the CCM as for GiveWell, Open Phil’s bar equals GiveWell’s bar in the CCM, whereas I thought Open Phil bar was supposed to become 2 times as high as GiveWell’s after this update.
Nitpick, ”. ” is missing before “90%”.
I appreciate your attention to these details!
These values that we included in the CCM for these interventions should probably be treated as approximate and only accurate to roughly an order of magnitude. These actual numbers may be a bit dated and probably don’t fully reflect current thinking about the marginal value of GHD interventions. I’ll talk with the team about whether they should be updated, but note that this wasn’t a deliberate re-evaluation of past work.
That said, it important to keep in mind that there are disagreements about what different kinds of effects are worth, such as Open Philanthropy’s reassessment of cash transfers (to which both they and GiveWell pin their effectiveness evaluations). We can’t directly compare OP’s self-professed bar with GiveWell’s self-professed bar as if the units are interchangeable. This is a complexity that is not well represented in the CCM. The Worldview Investigations team has not tried to adjudicate such disagreements over GHD interventions.