I can see the above applying for some definitions of time of perils and technological maturity, but then I think they may be astronomically unlikely.
What do you think about these considerations for expecting the time of perils to be very short in the grand scheme of things? It just doesn’t seem like the probability of possible future scenarios decays nearly fast enough to offset their greater value in expectation.
Those considerations make sense to me, but without further analysis it is not obvious to me whether they imply e.g. an annual existential risk in 2300 of 0.1 % or 10^-10, or e.g. a longterm existential risk of 10^-20 or 10^-60. I still tend to agree the expected value of the future is astronomical (e.g. at least 10^15 lives), but then the question is how easily one can increase it.
I still tend to agree the expected value of the future is astronomical (e.g. at least 10^15 lives), but then the question is how easily one can increase it.
If one grants that the time of perils will last at most only a few centuries, after which the per-century x-risk will be low enough to vindicate the hypothesis that the bulk of expected value lies in the long-term (even if one is uncertain about exactly how low it will drop), then deprioritizing longtermist interventions on tractability grounds seems hard to justify, because the concentration of total x-risk in the near-term means it’s comparatively much easier to reduce.
I am not sure proximity in time is the best proxy for tractability. The ratio between the final and current global GDP seems better, as it accounts for both the time horizon, and rate of change/growth over it. Intuitively, for a fixed time horizon, the higher the rate of change/growth, the harder it is to predict the outcomes of our actions, i.e. tractability will tend to be lower. The higher tractability linked to a short time of perils may be roughly offset by the faster rate of change over it. Maybe Aschenbrenner’s paper on existential risk and growth can inform this?
Note I am quite sympathetic to influencing the longterm future. As I said, I have been donating to the LTFF. However, I would disagree that donating to the LTFF is astronomically (e.g. 10 OOMs) better than to the Animal Welfare Fund.
Hi Vasco,
What do you think about these considerations for expecting the time of perils to be very short in the grand scheme of things? It just doesn’t seem like the probability of possible future scenarios decays nearly fast enough to offset their greater value in expectation.
Hi Pablo,
Those considerations make sense to me, but without further analysis it is not obvious to me whether they imply e.g. an annual existential risk in 2300 of 0.1 % or 10^-10, or e.g. a longterm existential risk of 10^-20 or 10^-60. I still tend to agree the expected value of the future is astronomical (e.g. at least 10^15 lives), but then the question is how easily one can increase it.
If one grants that the time of perils will last at most only a few centuries, after which the per-century x-risk will be low enough to vindicate the hypothesis that the bulk of expected value lies in the long-term (even if one is uncertain about exactly how low it will drop), then deprioritizing longtermist interventions on tractability grounds seems hard to justify, because the concentration of total x-risk in the near-term means it’s comparatively much easier to reduce.
I am not sure proximity in time is the best proxy for tractability. The ratio between the final and current global GDP seems better, as it accounts for both the time horizon, and rate of change/growth over it. Intuitively, for a fixed time horizon, the higher the rate of change/growth, the harder it is to predict the outcomes of our actions, i.e. tractability will tend to be lower. The higher tractability linked to a short time of perils may be roughly offset by the faster rate of change over it. Maybe Aschenbrenner’s paper on existential risk and growth can inform this?
Note I am quite sympathetic to influencing the longterm future. As I said, I have been donating to the LTFF. However, I would disagree that donating to the LTFF is astronomically (e.g. 10 OOMs) better than to the Animal Welfare Fund.