As, in your argument is that you are skeptical on priors? I think I’m confused what the argument is here.
Yes, mostly that. As far as I can tell, the (posterior) counterfactual impact of interventions whose effects can be accurately measured, like ones in global health and development, decays to 0 as time goes by, and can be modelled as increasing the value of the world for a few years or decades, far from astronomically.
Separately, my view is that due to acausal trade, it’s very likely that changing from human control to AI control looks less like “making worlds with astronomical value more likely” and looks more like “shifting some resources across the entire continuous measure”. But, this mostly adds up to the same thing as creating astronomical value.
I personally do not think acausal trade considerations are action relevant, but, if I was to think along those lines, I would assume there is way more stuff to be acausally influenced which is weakly correlated with what humans do than that is strongly correlated. So the probability of influencing more stuff acausally should still decrease with value, and I guess the decrease in the probability density would be faster than the increase in value, such that value density decreases with value. In this case, the expected value from astronomical acausal trades would still be super low.
Yes, mostly that. As far as I can tell, the (posterior) counterfactual impact of interventions whose effects can be accurately measured, like ones in global health and development, decays to 0 as time goes by, and can be modelled as increasing the value of the world for a few years or decades, far from astronomically.
I personally do not think acausal trade considerations are action relevant, but, if I was to think along those lines, I would assume there is way more stuff to be acausally influenced which is weakly correlated with what humans do than that is strongly correlated. So the probability of influencing more stuff acausally should still decrease with value, and I guess the decrease in the probability density would be faster than the increase in value, such that value density decreases with value. In this case, the expected value from astronomical acausal trades would still be super low.