That makes sense. It looks like humans branched off chimpanzees just 5.5 M years (= (5 + 6)/​2*10^6) ago. Assuming the time from chimpanzees to a species similar to humans follows an exponential distribution with a mean equal to that time, the probability of not recovering after human extinction in the 1 billion years during which Earth will remain habitable would be only 1.09*10^-79 (= e^(-10^9/​(5.5*10^6))). The probability of not recovering is higher due to model uncertainty. The time to recover may follow a different distribution.
In addition, recovery can be harder for other risks:
Catastrophes wiping out more species in humans’ evolutionary past (e.g. the impact of a large comet) would have a longer expected recovery time, and therefore imply a lower chance of recovery during the time Earth will remain habitable.
That makes sense. It looks like humans branched off chimpanzees just 5.5 M years (= (5 + 6)/​2*10^6) ago. Assuming the time from chimpanzees to a species similar to humans follows an exponential distribution with a mean equal to that time, the probability of not recovering after human extinction in the 1 billion years during which Earth will remain habitable would be only 1.09*10^-79 (= e^(-10^9/​(5.5*10^6))). The probability of not recovering is higher due to model uncertainty. The time to recover may follow a different distribution.
In addition, recovery can be harder for other risks:
Catastrophes wiping out more species in humans’ evolutionary past (e.g. the impact of a large comet) would have a longer expected recovery time, and therefore imply a lower chance of recovery during the time Earth will remain habitable.
As I said above, I estimated a 0.0513 % chance of not fully recovering from a repetition of the last mass extinction 66 M years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event.
A rogue AI would not allow another species to take control.