AFAICT, the model also doesn’t consider far future effects of animal welfare and GHD interventions. And against relative ratios like >10^20 between x-risk and neartermist interventions, see:
(I agree that the actual ratio isn’t like 10^20. In my view this is mostly because of the long-term effects of neartermist stuff,* which the model doesn’t consider, so my criticism of the model stands. Maybe I should have said “undervalue longterm-focused stuff by a factor of >10^20 relative to the component of neartermist stuff that the model considers.”)
*Setting aside causing others to change prioritization, which it feels wrong for this model to consider.
AFAICT, the model also doesn’t consider far future effects of animal welfare and GHD interventions. And against relative ratios like >10^20 between x-risk and neartermist interventions, see:
https://reducing-suffering.org/why-charities-dont-differ-astronomically-in-cost-effectiveness/
https://longtermrisk.org/how-the-simulation-argument-dampens-future-fanaticism
(I agree that the actual ratio isn’t like 10^20. In my view this is mostly because of the long-term effects of neartermist stuff,* which the model doesn’t consider, so my criticism of the model stands. Maybe I should have said “undervalue longterm-focused stuff by a factor of >10^20 relative to the component of neartermist stuff that the model considers.”)
*Setting aside causing others to change prioritization, which it feels wrong for this model to consider.