Hi, apologies if this is based on a silly misreading of outputs, but I was just trying out the CCM and choosing ‘Direct Cash Transfers’ gives:
Over 150K simulations, this intervention was found to produce on average the equivalent of 2 DALYs averted in value per $1000.
2 DALYs / $1000
This gives it an average cost per DALY averted of $609.63 with a median cost per DALY averted of $1.54. 90% of simulations fall between $406.38 and $888.91.
How can the median ($1.54) be over 2 OOMs below the lower bar for 90% of simulations ($406.38)?
Similarly, the ‘GiveWell Bar’ yields:
Over 150K simulations, this intervention was found to produce on average the equivalent of 21 DALYs averted in value per $1000.
21 DALYs / $1000
This gives it an average cost per DALY averted of $46.97 with a median cost per DALY averted of $17.88 90% of simulations fall between $23.99 and $87.99.
Am I right to interpret this as saying that the median is outside the range of 90% of simulations?
Based on the numbers, I’m guessing that this is a bug in which we’re showing the median DALYs averted per $1000 but describing it as the median cost per DALY. We’re planning to get rid of the cost per DALY averted and just stick with DALYs per $1000 to avoid future confusions.
Hi, apologies if this is based on a silly misreading of outputs, but I was just trying out the CCM and choosing ‘Direct Cash Transfers’ gives:
How can the median ($1.54) be over 2 OOMs below the lower bar for 90% of simulations ($406.38)?
Similarly, the ‘GiveWell Bar’ yields:
Am I right to interpret this as saying that the median is outside the range of 90% of simulations?
Based on the numbers, I’m guessing that this is a bug in which we’re showing the median DALYs averted per $1000 but describing it as the median cost per DALY. We’re planning to get rid of the cost per DALY averted and just stick with DALYs per $1000 to avoid future confusions.
Thanks for clarifying!