This project was completed as part of contract work with Open Philanthropy
I wonder whether Open Philanthropy (OP) should have commisioned an analysis like yours much sooner. More importantly, I am a little confused about why OP would want to know how much is being spent on biosecurity & pandemic preparedness at this stage. Neglectedness may be a good heuristic to identify promising areas at an early stage, but OP has now granted 191 M$ to interventions in that area, according to their grants’ database on 17 February 2024. So I would have expected OP to be focussing on the marginal cost-effectiveness of their grants. In addition, I think this should be assessed not only in terms of reducing tail risk, but also in DALY/​$, as it is typically the case for public health interventions.
Thanks for sharing, Conrad!
I wonder whether Open Philanthropy (OP) should have commisioned an analysis like yours much sooner. More importantly, I am a little confused about why OP would want to know how much is being spent on biosecurity & pandemic preparedness at this stage. Neglectedness may be a good heuristic to identify promising areas at an early stage, but OP has now granted 191 M$ to interventions in that area, according to their grants’ database on 17 February 2024. So I would have expected OP to be focussing on the marginal cost-effectiveness of their grants. In addition, I think this should be assessed not only in terms of reducing tail risk, but also in DALY/​$, as it is typically the case for public health interventions.