> Given all the uncertainties, do you honestly think that in 10 years’
time the choice of which charity(ies) to fund will be significantly
clearer than it is today?
I think it will be significantly clearer in 2-3 years. GiveWell only started fairly recently; for charities outside of GiveWell’s field of vision, especially those that focus on non-human animals, serious charity evaluation (i.e. Effective Animal Activism) has existed for less than two years IIRC.
We’re learning rapidly, and we still have a lot to learn. In all likelihood, there exist opportunities much better than the ones we currently know about.
> the optimal charity can never be chosen with 100% certainty
True, but I may have 20% confidence in my current favorite charity and believe that by next year I will have 40% confidence in my favorite charity. That’s an expected-value return of 100% in one year, which is worth waiting for. (I just made up those numbers, but I expect reality to look something like that.)
> Given all the uncertainties, do you honestly think that in 10 years’ time the choice of which charity(ies) to fund will be significantly clearer than it is today?
I think it will be significantly clearer in 2-3 years. GiveWell only started fairly recently; for charities outside of GiveWell’s field of vision, especially those that focus on non-human animals, serious charity evaluation (i.e. Effective Animal Activism) has existed for less than two years IIRC.
We’re learning rapidly, and we still have a lot to learn. In all likelihood, there exist opportunities much better than the ones we currently know about.
> the optimal charity can never be chosen with 100% certainty
True, but I may have 20% confidence in my current favorite charity and believe that by next year I will have 40% confidence in my favorite charity. That’s an expected-value return of 100% in one year, which is worth waiting for. (I just made up those numbers, but I expect reality to look something like that.)