j and k are indices for the causes. I wrote j≠k because you don’t have to assume that dk and pk are independent for the math to work. But everything else will have to be independent.
Maybe the uncertainties shouldn’t be independent, but often they will. Our uncertainty about the probability of AI doom is probably not related to our uncertainty about the probability of pandemics doom, for instance.
j and k are indices for the causes. I wrote j≠k because you don’t have to assume that dk and pk are independent for the math to work. But everything else will have to be independent.
Maybe the uncertainties shouldn’t be independent, but often they will. Our uncertainty about the probability of AI doom is probably not related to our uncertainty about the probability of pandemics doom, for instance.