If we accept that AI is likely to reshape the world over the next 10–15 years, this realisation will have major implications for all cause areas.
I think donating to the Shrimp Welfare Project (SWP) would still have super high cost-effectiveness even if the world was certain to end in 10 years. I estimate it has been 64.3 k times as cost-effective as GiveWell’s top charities (ignoring their effects on animals) for 10 years of acceleration of the adoption of electrical stunning, as used by Open Philanthropy (OP). If the acceleration followed a normal distribution, SWP’s cost-effectiveness would only become 50 % as high if the world was certain to end in 10 years. I think this would still be orders of magnitude more cost-effective than the best interventions in global health and development and AI safety.
There is also the question of whether the world will actually be radically reshaped. I am happy to bet 10 k$ against short timelines for that.
Hi Tobias.
I think donating to the Shrimp Welfare Project (SWP) would still have super high cost-effectiveness even if the world was certain to end in 10 years. I estimate it has been 64.3 k times as cost-effective as GiveWell’s top charities (ignoring their effects on animals) for 10 years of acceleration of the adoption of electrical stunning, as used by Open Philanthropy (OP). If the acceleration followed a normal distribution, SWP’s cost-effectiveness would only become 50 % as high if the world was certain to end in 10 years. I think this would still be orders of magnitude more cost-effective than the best interventions in global health and development and AI safety.
There is also the question of whether the world will actually be radically reshaped. I am happy to bet 10 k$ against short timelines for that.