In 2017, 80k estimated that $10M of extra funding could solve 1% of AI xrisk (todo: see if I can find a better stock estimate for the back of my envelope than this). Taking these numbers literally, this means that anyone who wants to buy AI offsets should, today, pay $1G*(their share of the responsibility).
There are 20,000 AI researchers in the world, so if they’re taken as being solely responsible for the totality of AI xrisk the appropriate pigouvian AI offset tax fine is $45,000 per researcher hired per year. This is large but not overwhelmingly so.
Additional funding towards AI safety will probably go to hiring safety researchers for $100,000 per year each, so continuing to take these cost effectiveness estimates literally, to zeroth order another way of offsetting is to hire one safety researcher for every two capabilities researchers.
In 2017, 80k estimated that $10M of extra funding could solve 1% of AI xrisk (todo: see if I can find a better stock estimate for the back of my envelope than this). Taking these numbers literally, this means that anyone who wants to buy AI offsets should, today, pay $1G*(their share of the responsibility).
There are 20,000 AI researchers in the world, so if they’re taken as being solely responsible for the totality of AI xrisk the appropriate pigouvian AI offset tax fine is $45,000 per researcher hired per year. This is large but not overwhelmingly so.
Additional funding towards AI safety will probably go to hiring safety researchers for $100,000 per year each, so continuing to take these cost effectiveness estimates literally, to zeroth order another way of offsetting is to hire one safety researcher for every two capabilities researchers.