Of less immediate practical relevance than other questions, but nonetheless interesting and not before discussed in this context (to my knowledge):
Will the first artificial conscious mind be determined to be:
In the form of an LLM
A simulation of a non-human animal brain (such as nematodes, for instance)
A simulation/emulation of a human brain
There will not be any such determination by the resolution date (seems best to exclude this answer and have the question not resolve should this be the case, considering that it would dominate otherwise. A separate question on this would be better)
Other
Also:
Something about octopus farm prevalence/output probably
Forecasts of overall farmed animal welfare spending for a given future year, inflation corrected. Not sure what the most current estimates are at the moment or what org would be best for resolution.
Might be interesting to do something like “according to reputable figure X (Lewis Bollard?), what will be judged to have been the most effective animal spending on the margin over the prior 5 years”. Options: Corporate campaigns, movement building, direct action, go-vegan advocacy, policy advocacy, alternative protein development, etc.
Hi Aditi! My current level of involvement in the animal movement isn’t high enough to be very decision relevant.
As for others in the movement: The main appeal of the first question is to better draw out expectations about future moral patients. Might shed light on what the relative strength of given hypothetical sentience candidates in relation to each other are. My understanding is that the consensus view is that digital minds dominate far-future welfare. But regardless of whether that is the case, it’s not obvious that will be the case without concerted efforts to design these minds as such. And if it is necessary to design digital minds for sentience, then we might expect that other artificial consciousnesses are created before that point (which may deserve our concern).
The last two questions are rough attempts to aid prioritization efforts.
1. Farmed animals receive very little in philanthropic funding; so relatively minor changes may matter a lot. 2. Holden Karnofsky in his latest 80k episode appearance said something to the effect that corporate campaigns had in his view some of Open Phil’s best returns. Arguably, with less commitments being achieved overtime and other successes on the horizon (alt protein, policy, new small animal focused orgs), this could change. Predictions expecting that it will might in themselves help inform funders making inter cause prioritization decisions.
Of less immediate practical relevance than other questions, but nonetheless interesting and not before discussed in this context (to my knowledge):
Will the first artificial conscious mind be determined to be:
In the form of an LLM
A simulation of a non-human animal brain (such as nematodes, for instance)
A simulation/emulation of a human brain
T
here will not be any such determination by the resolution date(seems best to exclude this answer and have the question not resolve should this be the case, considering that it would dominate otherwise. A separate question on this would be better)Other
Also:
Something about octopus farm prevalence/output probably
Forecasts of overall farmed animal welfare spending for a given future year, inflation corrected. Not sure what the most current estimates are at the moment or what org would be best for resolution.
Might be interesting to do something like “according to reputable figure X (Lewis Bollard?), what will be judged to have been the most effective animal spending on the margin over the prior 5 years”. Options: Corporate campaigns, movement building, direct action, go-vegan advocacy, policy advocacy, alternative protein development, etc.
Hi Dylan, thanks for these questions.
To make the tournament as decision-relevant as possible, would you be able to add:
Why you’re submitting this question, and how this question could influence decisions (your own, or those of others you know in the animal movement)
Your current (and/or past) level of involvement in the animal movement (e.g. funder, researcher, advocate, none/adjacent, etc.)
Hi Aditi! My current level of involvement in the animal movement isn’t high enough to be very decision relevant.
As for others in the movement: The main appeal of the first question is to better draw out expectations about future moral patients. Might shed light on what the relative strength of given hypothetical sentience candidates in relation to each other are. My understanding is that the consensus view is that digital minds dominate far-future welfare. But regardless of whether that is the case, it’s not obvious that will be the case without concerted efforts to design these minds as such. And if it is necessary to design digital minds for sentience, then we might expect that other artificial consciousnesses are created before that point (which may deserve our concern).
The last two questions are rough attempts to aid prioritization efforts.
1. Farmed animals receive very little in philanthropic funding; so relatively minor changes may matter a lot.
2. Holden Karnofsky in his latest 80k episode appearance said something to the effect that corporate campaigns had in his view some of Open Phil’s best returns. Arguably, with less commitments being achieved overtime and other successes on the horizon (alt protein, policy, new small animal focused orgs), this could change. Predictions expecting that it will might in themselves help inform funders making inter cause prioritization decisions.