This is great, nice post! Wanted to flag that there’s some potentially useful older discussion of related phenomena that I didn’t see linked in your post (though possible I missed) in this 2011 GiveWell blog post (title: Why we can’t take expected valuate estimates literally even when they’re unbiased). I think this is an issue for us at Coefficient Giving too and is one reason among many why I continue to find worldview diversification attractive.
This is great, nice post! Wanted to flag that there’s some potentially useful older discussion of related phenomena that I didn’t see linked in your post (though possible I missed) in this 2011 GiveWell blog post (title: Why we can’t take expected valuate estimates literally even when they’re unbiased). I think this is an issue for us at Coefficient Giving too and is one reason among many why I continue to find worldview diversification attractive.