Basically, as I said in my post I’m fairly confident about most things except the MVP (minimum viable population) where I almost completely defer to Luisa Rodriguez. Likewise, for the likelihood of irrecoverable collapse, my prior is that’s the likelihood is very low for the reasons I gave above but given that I haven’t explored that much the inside view arguments in favor of it, I could quickly update upward and I think that it would the best way for me to update positively on biorisks actually posing an X-risk in the next 30 years.
My view on the 95% is pretty robust to external perturbations though because my beliefs favor short timelines (<2030). So I think you’d also need to change my mind on how easy it is to make a virus by 2030 that kills >90% of the people, spreads so fast/ or is stealthy so that almost everyone gets infected.
Basically, as I said in my post I’m fairly confident about most things except the MVP (minimum viable population) where I almost completely defer to Luisa Rodriguez.
Likewise, for the likelihood of irrecoverable collapse, my prior is that’s the likelihood is very low for the reasons I gave above but given that I haven’t explored that much the inside view arguments in favor of it, I could quickly update upward and I think that it would the best way for me to update positively on biorisks actually posing an X-risk in the next 30 years.
My view on the 95% is pretty robust to external perturbations though because my beliefs favor short timelines (<2030). So I think you’d also need to change my mind on how easy it is to make a virus by 2030 that kills >90% of the people, spreads so fast/ or is stealthy so that almost everyone gets infected.