I don’t have a deep model of AI—I mostly defer to some bodged-together aggregate of reasonable seeming approaches/people (e.g. Carlsmith/Cotra/Davidson/Karnofsky/Ord/surveys).
I think that it’s one of the problems that explains why many people find my claim far too strong: in the EA community, very few people have a strong inside view on both advanced AIs and biorisks. (I think that’s it’s more generally true for most combinations of cause areas).
And I think that indeed, with the kind of uncertainty one must have when one’s deferring , it becomes harder to do claims as strong as the one I’m making here.
And on AI, do you have timelines + P(doom|AGI)?
I don’t have a deep model of AI—I mostly defer to some bodged-together aggregate of reasonable seeming approaches/people (e.g. Carlsmith/Cotra/Davidson/Karnofsky/Ord/surveys).
I think that it’s one of the problems that explains why many people find my claim far too strong: in the EA community, very few people have a strong inside view on both advanced AIs and biorisks. (I think that’s it’s more generally true for most combinations of cause areas).
And I think that indeed, with the kind of uncertainty one must have when one’s deferring , it becomes harder to do claims as strong as the one I’m making here.