I just did a BOTEC, and if I’m not mistaken, 0.0000099999999999999999999999999999999999999999988% is incorrect, and instead should be 0.0000099999999999999999999999999999999999999999998%. This is a crux, as it would mean that the SWWM pledge is actually 2x less effective than the GWWC pledge.
I tried to write out the calculations in this comment; in the process of doing so, I discovered that there’s a length limit to EA Forum comments, so unfortunately I’m not able to share my calculations. Maybe you could share yours and we could double-crux?
Did you assume the axiom of choice? That’s a reasonable modeling decision—our estimate used an uninformative prior over whether it’s true, false, or meaningless.
I just did a BOTEC, and if I’m not mistaken, 0.0000099999999999999999999999999999999999999999988% is incorrect, and instead should be 0.0000099999999999999999999999999999999999999999998%. This is a crux, as it would mean that the SWWM pledge is actually 2x less effective than the GWWC pledge.
I tried to write out the calculations in this comment; in the process of doing so, I discovered that there’s a length limit to EA Forum comments, so unfortunately I’m not able to share my calculations. Maybe you could share yours and we could double-crux?
Did you assume the axiom of choice? That’s a reasonable modeling decision—our estimate used an uninformative prior over whether it’s true, false, or meaningless.