Holden—thanks very much for writing this; I strongly agree with the importance of patience, fact-gathering, wisdom, and cold takes.
During a PR crisis, often the best communication strategy is not to communicate, and to let the media attention die down and move on to the next monetizable outrage narrative about somebody else or some other group that’s allegedly done something wrong.
I would add just three supporting points.
First, hot takes tend to provoke hot counter-takes, leading to cycles of accusations and counter-accusations. When a movement undergoes a moral crisis, and seems guilt-stricken, self-critical, and full of self-doubt, old grievances suddenly get aired, in hopes that the movement’s members will be more vulnerable to various forms of moral blackmail, and will change their policies, norms, and ethos under conditions of high emotionality and time pressure. The hot takes and hot counter-takes can also escalate into clannish fractures and ideological schisms in the movement. In other words, any individual hot take might seem innocuous, but collectively, a barrage of hot takes flying in all directions can have huge negative side-effects on a movement’s social cohesiveness and moral integrity, and can lead to changes that seem urgent and righteous in the short-term, but that have big hidden costs in the long term.
Second, any hot takes that are shared on EA Forum are in the public domain, and can be quoted by any journalist, pundit, muckraker, blogger, YouTuber, or grievance-holder, for any reason, to push any narrative they want. We are used to EA Forum seeming like a cozy, friendly, in-group medium for open and honest discussions. But in the present circumstances, we may need to treat EA Forum as a de facto EA public relations outlet in its own right. Everything we say on here can be taken, quoted out of context, misrepresented, and spun, by anybody out there who’s hostile to EA. Thus, when writing our hot takes here, we might naively imagine the audience being the average EA reader—rational, kind, constructive, sympathetic. But there’s the tail risk that any given hot take will be weaponized by non-EAs to hurt EA in any way they can.
Third, some EA people seem to misunderstand the nature of PR issues, media narratives, and the ‘brand equity’ of social/activist/moral movements like EA. Certainly, as Holden notes, ‘people who care too much about PR can be slippery and deceptive’. Many people outside the professions of PR, crisis management, market researcher, advertising, political campaigning, etc tend to view ‘public relations’ as very nebulous, vague, and unreal—the realm of sociopathic mind-control wizards.
However, public sentiment can be measured, quantified, analyzed, and influenced. Literally tens of thousands of people in market research do this all day, every day, for corporations, governments, activist movements, etc. There are facts of the matter about public perception of EA as a moral/social brand. Some actual number of people have heard about EA for the first time in the last few days—maybe tens of millions. Some specific % of them will have formed a negative, neutral, or positive impression of EA. Any negative impressions of EA will last an average of X days, weeks, or years. They will be Y% less (or more) likely to get involved in EA, or to donate money to EA. We don’t know what those numbers actually are (though we should probably spend a bit of money on market research to find out how bad the damage has actually been.)
There’s a psychological reality to public sentiment—however tricky it can be to measure, and however transient its effects can be. Most of us are amateurs when it comes to thinking about PR. But it’s better to recognize that we’re newbies with a lot that we need to learn—rather than dismissing PR concerns as beneath contempt.
Meta note: You’ve had a lot of sober and interesting things to say on the EA Forum, Geoffrey, and I’ve been appreciating having you around for these conversations. :)
(It sounds like I’m more pro-hot-takes and less PR-concerned than you and Holden, and I may write more about that in the future, but I’ll ironically need to think about it longer in order to properly articulate my views.)
I hope I’m not tempting fate here, but I’m quite surprised I haven’t already seen EA Forums quoted “out there” during the present moment. I can only imagine outsiders have more juicy things to focus on than this forum, for the moment. I suppose once they tire of FTX/Alameda leaders’ blogs and other sources they might wander over here for some dirt.
Holden—thanks very much for writing this; I strongly agree with the importance of patience, fact-gathering, wisdom, and cold takes.
During a PR crisis, often the best communication strategy is not to communicate, and to let the media attention die down and move on to the next monetizable outrage narrative about somebody else or some other group that’s allegedly done something wrong.
I would add just three supporting points.
First, hot takes tend to provoke hot counter-takes, leading to cycles of accusations and counter-accusations. When a movement undergoes a moral crisis, and seems guilt-stricken, self-critical, and full of self-doubt, old grievances suddenly get aired, in hopes that the movement’s members will be more vulnerable to various forms of moral blackmail, and will change their policies, norms, and ethos under conditions of high emotionality and time pressure. The hot takes and hot counter-takes can also escalate into clannish fractures and ideological schisms in the movement. In other words, any individual hot take might seem innocuous, but collectively, a barrage of hot takes flying in all directions can have huge negative side-effects on a movement’s social cohesiveness and moral integrity, and can lead to changes that seem urgent and righteous in the short-term, but that have big hidden costs in the long term.
Second, any hot takes that are shared on EA Forum are in the public domain, and can be quoted by any journalist, pundit, muckraker, blogger, YouTuber, or grievance-holder, for any reason, to push any narrative they want. We are used to EA Forum seeming like a cozy, friendly, in-group medium for open and honest discussions. But in the present circumstances, we may need to treat EA Forum as a de facto EA public relations outlet in its own right. Everything we say on here can be taken, quoted out of context, misrepresented, and spun, by anybody out there who’s hostile to EA. Thus, when writing our hot takes here, we might naively imagine the audience being the average EA reader—rational, kind, constructive, sympathetic. But there’s the tail risk that any given hot take will be weaponized by non-EAs to hurt EA in any way they can.
Third, some EA people seem to misunderstand the nature of PR issues, media narratives, and the ‘brand equity’ of social/activist/moral movements like EA. Certainly, as Holden notes, ‘people who care too much about PR can be slippery and deceptive’. Many people outside the professions of PR, crisis management, market researcher, advertising, political campaigning, etc tend to view ‘public relations’ as very nebulous, vague, and unreal—the realm of sociopathic mind-control wizards.
However, public sentiment can be measured, quantified, analyzed, and influenced. Literally tens of thousands of people in market research do this all day, every day, for corporations, governments, activist movements, etc. There are facts of the matter about public perception of EA as a moral/social brand. Some actual number of people have heard about EA for the first time in the last few days—maybe tens of millions. Some specific % of them will have formed a negative, neutral, or positive impression of EA. Any negative impressions of EA will last an average of X days, weeks, or years. They will be Y% less (or more) likely to get involved in EA, or to donate money to EA. We don’t know what those numbers actually are (though we should probably spend a bit of money on market research to find out how bad the damage has actually been.)
There’s a psychological reality to public sentiment—however tricky it can be to measure, and however transient its effects can be. Most of us are amateurs when it comes to thinking about PR. But it’s better to recognize that we’re newbies with a lot that we need to learn—rather than dismissing PR concerns as beneath contempt.
Meta note: You’ve had a lot of sober and interesting things to say on the EA Forum, Geoffrey, and I’ve been appreciating having you around for these conversations. :)
(It sounds like I’m more pro-hot-takes and less PR-concerned than you and Holden, and I may write more about that in the future, but I’ll ironically need to think about it longer in order to properly articulate my views.)
Rob—I appreciate your comment; thank you!
Look forward to whatever you have to say, in due course.
I hope I’m not tempting fate here, but I’m quite surprised I haven’t already seen EA Forums quoted “out there” during the present moment. I can only imagine outsiders have more juicy things to focus on than this forum, for the moment. I suppose once they tire of FTX/Alameda leaders’ blogs and other sources they might wander over here for some dirt.
A few days ago, someone noted a couple of instances and someone else has just noted another.