Yeah I think Metaculus would be the best people to go talk about this. I know Gaia (Metaculus’s CEO) is super excited about causal graphs; happy to intro you two if you’d like!
Also: Max, what’s your background? Do you have the capacity to do direct work on this (ie build this out on your own?) If so, what are your bottlenecks (eg a year of funding for this project?)
My background is as a software developer, with professional web-dev experience. I’m currently doing a research master’s on ML (transformers) and last year did a project surveying the field of probabilistic programming languages.
Because of my Master’s, I don’t have capacity to work on this right at the moment, but come September this year it’s absolutely a candidate for things I would work on. I do have the skills and will have capacity to work on this on my own if I think that it’s my best option for impact. From September onward, I have two bottlenecks: 1) Funding 2) Finding the best use of my time among many options.
FWIW we’d love something like this in Manifold too, but that’s probably a bit farther out; Metaculus is much better developed in terms of complex in-depth estimation/forecasting, while Manifold is trying to focus on being as simple as possible.
Yeah I think Metaculus would be the best people to go talk about this. I know Gaia (Metaculus’s CEO) is super excited about causal graphs; happy to intro you two if you’d like!
Also: Max, what’s your background? Do you have the capacity to do direct work on this (ie build this out on your own?) If so, what are your bottlenecks (eg a year of funding for this project?)
My background is as a software developer, with professional web-dev experience. I’m currently doing a research master’s on ML (transformers) and last year did a project surveying the field of probabilistic programming languages.
Because of my Master’s, I don’t have capacity to work on this right at the moment, but come September this year it’s absolutely a candidate for things I would work on. I do have the skills and will have capacity to work on this on my own if I think that it’s my best option for impact. From September onward, I have two bottlenecks: 1) Funding 2) Finding the best use of my time among many options.
FWIW we’d love something like this in Manifold too, but that’s probably a bit farther out; Metaculus is much better developed in terms of complex in-depth estimation/forecasting, while Manifold is trying to focus on being as simple as possible.