Executive summary: A new analysis estimates the duration of psychotherapy’s impact on depression to be around 1 year 4 months, much shorter than previous estimates of 3-4 years. This translates to a duration multiplier of 0.56.
Key points:
Based on relapse rates after successful treatment and spontaneous remission rates, benefits appear to converge around 1 year 4 months after therapy.
This translates to a duration multiplier of 0.56 with linear decay, much lower than previous estimates of 1.7-2.16.
The analysis relies on observational data, avoiding some biases inherent in RCTs, but still has uncertainties.
Prior estimates may be inflated by biased study design in RCTs measuring long-term impacts.
The final estimate includes a 90% adjustment for suspected optimism. Without it, the raw multiplier would be 0.625.
While not highly robust, the estimate is probably accurate within a factor of 2.
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Executive summary: A new analysis estimates the duration of psychotherapy’s impact on depression to be around 1 year 4 months, much shorter than previous estimates of 3-4 years. This translates to a duration multiplier of 0.56.
Key points:
Based on relapse rates after successful treatment and spontaneous remission rates, benefits appear to converge around 1 year 4 months after therapy.
This translates to a duration multiplier of 0.56 with linear decay, much lower than previous estimates of 1.7-2.16.
The analysis relies on observational data, avoiding some biases inherent in RCTs, but still has uncertainties.
Prior estimates may be inflated by biased study design in RCTs measuring long-term impacts.
The final estimate includes a 90% adjustment for suspected optimism. Without it, the raw multiplier would be 0.625.
While not highly robust, the estimate is probably accurate within a factor of 2.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.