I think Tegmark is still too optimistic. The arguments against nuclear war happening are typically very weak (variations of “it hasn’t happened yet, people believe in MAD, leaders are rational). And even when pundits have considered the risks higher (Cuban missile crisis) their actions have not reflected this at all. We should take this as a signal of massive status quo bias and denial.
I think Tegmark is still too optimistic. The arguments against nuclear war happening are typically very weak (variations of “it hasn’t happened yet, people believe in MAD, leaders are rational). And even when pundits have considered the risks higher (Cuban missile crisis) their actions have not reflected this at all. We should take this as a signal of massive status quo bias and denial.
http://www.mcgannfreestone.com.au/?p=2255