I shared your intuition about the second one. But the number is from 2017 and a lot has changed since then—if anyone is still parroting “less than 100 people”, please ask them to stop.
In that post I ended up guessing that safety is maybe twice as large as it looks, but also maybe only 1.1x larger. Ben Todd (the source of the old claim) responded here and I agree with him.
I shared your intuition about the second one. But the number is from 2017 and a lot has changed since then—if anyone is still parroting “less than 100 people”, please ask them to stop.
In that post I ended up guessing that safety is maybe twice as large as it looks, but also maybe only 1.1x larger. Ben Todd (the source of the old claim) responded here and I agree with him.
Thanks for your research and the comment(s) there—I heard that number this year.
I also replied to one of the comments there here.