1. Reports on a specific thinker (e.g. Gwern) or body of work’s predictions. These would probably be published individually or showing interesting comparisons, similar to the Futurists track record in Cold Takes (based on Arb’s Big Three research) 2. A dashboard ranking the track records of lots of thinkers
For (2), I agree that cherry picking would be bad, and we’d want it to cover a good range.
For our initial outputs from (1) though, I’m excited about specifically picking thinkers who people would find it especially useful to understand their track record (or to have a good-quality assessment of it that they can cite). Curious if you have thoughts of specific people who fit the bill for you?
Awesome, thanks Adam, this makes a lot of sense. I’d be excited to see reports on specific thinkers like Gwern and Yuval Noah Harrari. I’d be especially excited to look at the track records of institutions, like frontier developers or governments (e.g. the UK Government or its AISI).
Great thanks!
We have two outputs in mind with this project:
1. Reports on a specific thinker (e.g. Gwern) or body of work’s predictions. These would probably be published individually or showing interesting comparisons, similar to the Futurists track record in Cold Takes (based on Arb’s Big Three research)
2. A dashboard ranking the track records of lots of thinkers
For (2), I agree that cherry picking would be bad, and we’d want it to cover a good range.
For our initial outputs from (1) though, I’m excited about specifically picking thinkers who people would find it especially useful to understand their track record (or to have a good-quality assessment of it that they can cite). Curious if you have thoughts of specific people who fit the bill for you?
Awesome, thanks Adam, this makes a lot of sense. I’d be excited to see reports on specific thinkers like Gwern and Yuval Noah Harrari. I’d be especially excited to look at the track records of institutions, like frontier developers or governments (e.g. the UK Government or its AISI).