Somewhat echoing others, I think a better reference class is looking at the ability of human technology to cause damage over time and that seems to have increased, quite dramatically.
I’d suggest that an interesting question to ask would be: “If things end slowly, how similar are the reasons for this likely to for previous civilisations?”. I think would be much easier to extract out these specific reasons and to try to show that one or more of them is analogous to our current situation.
And to reiterate, this sketch is very rough. I’d love to see someone work out this base rate, and how it might be changing, more carefully.
Perhaps, although working this out in more detail doesn’t seem, at least to my mind, to be the right focus for future work. Instead, I’d suggest developing the line I suggest above.
Somewhat echoing others, I think a better reference class is looking at the ability of human technology to cause damage over time and that seems to have increased, quite dramatically.
I’d suggest that an interesting question to ask would be: “If things end slowly, how similar are the reasons for this likely to for previous civilisations?”. I think would be much easier to extract out these specific reasons and to try to show that one or more of them is analogous to our current situation.
Perhaps, although working this out in more detail doesn’t seem, at least to my mind, to be the right focus for future work. Instead, I’d suggest developing the line I suggest above.
That does sound like a better reference class and question, thanks!