Agreed Eli, I’m still working to understand where the forecasting ends and the research begins. You’re right, the distinction is not whether you put a number at the end of your research project.
In AGI (or other hard sciences) the work may be very different, and done by different people. But in other fields, like geopolitics, I see Tetlock-style forecasting as central, even necessary, for research.
At the margin, I think forecasting should be more research-y in every domain, including AGI. Otherwise I expect AGI forecasts will continue to be used, while not being very useful.
Agreed Eli, I’m still working to understand where the forecasting ends and the research begins. You’re right, the distinction is not whether you put a number at the end of your research project.
In AGI (or other hard sciences) the work may be very different, and done by different people. But in other fields, like geopolitics, I see Tetlock-style forecasting as central, even necessary, for research.
At the margin, I think forecasting should be more research-y in every domain, including AGI. Otherwise I expect AGI forecasts will continue to be used, while not being very useful.