We checked to see if Tetlock’s 2005 book had anything to tell us about our question.
Despite my own and others’ recollection that it shows that top generalists match experts, the main RFE experiment turns out to compare PhD area experts against PhD experts outside their precise area. The confusion arises because he uses the word “dilettante” for these latter experts, and doesn’t define this until the last appendix.
Be sure to check out the vast chasm between the experts and random undergrads.
We checked to see if Tetlock’s 2005 book had anything to tell us about our question.
Despite my own and others’ recollection that it shows that top generalists match experts, the main RFE experiment turns out to compare PhD area experts against PhD experts outside their precise area. The confusion arises because he uses the word “dilettante” for these latter experts, and doesn’t define this until the last appendix.
Be sure to check out the vast chasm between the experts and random undergrads.