Good catch, Tim! Well, at least Good Judgement Inc. (and some papers I’ve seen) cite Goldstein et al (2015) straight after David Ignatius’s 30% claim: https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/
If you by any chance have another paper[1] or resource in mind regarding the 30% claim, I would love to include it in the review.
Note that Goldstein et al don’t make that claim themselves, their discussion and conclusion are nuanced.
Good catch, Tim! Well, at least Good Judgement Inc. (and some papers I’ve seen) cite Goldstein et al (2015) straight after David Ignatius’s 30% claim: https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/
If you by any chance have another paper[1] or resource in mind regarding the 30% claim, I would love to include it in the review.
Note that Goldstein et al don’t make that claim themselves, their discussion and conclusion are nuanced.