Good catch, Tim! Well, at least Good Judgement Inc. (and some papers I’ve seen) cite Goldstein et al (2015) straight after David Ignatius’s 30% claim: https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/
If you by any chance have another paper[1] or resource in mind regarding the 30% claim, I would love to include it in the review.
Note that Goldstein et al don’t make that claim themselves, their discussion and conclusion are nuanced.
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Good catch, Tim! Well, at least Good Judgement Inc. (and some papers I’ve seen) cite Goldstein et al (2015) straight after David Ignatius’s 30% claim: https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/
If you by any chance have another paper[1] or resource in mind regarding the 30% claim, I would love to include it in the review.
Note that Goldstein et al don’t make that claim themselves, their discussion and conclusion are nuanced.