Thank you, Tim! Likely partly due to is my impressions of what’s going on based on existing research; I think we know that it is “likely partly” but probably not much more based on current literature.
The line of reasoning which I find plausible is “GJP PM and GJP All Surveys Logit” is more or less the same pool of people but the one aggregation algorithm is much better than another; it’s plausible that “IC All Surveys Logit would improve on ICPM quite dramatically.” And because the difference between GJP PM and ICPM is small it feels plausible that if the best aggregation method would be applied to IC, IC would cut the aforementioned 30% gap.
(I am happy to change my mind upon seeing more research comparing strong forecasters and domain experts.)
Thank you, Tim! Likely partly due to is my impressions of what’s going on based on existing research; I think we know that it is “likely partly” but probably not much more based on current literature.
The line of reasoning which I find plausible is “GJP PM and GJP All Surveys Logit” is more or less the same pool of people but the one aggregation algorithm is much better than another; it’s plausible that “IC All Surveys Logit would improve on ICPM quite dramatically.” And because the difference between GJP PM and ICPM is small it feels plausible that if the best aggregation method would be applied to IC, IC would cut the aforementioned 30% gap.
(I am happy to change my mind upon seeing more research comparing strong forecasters and domain experts.)