As a semi-active user of prediction markets and a person who looked up a bunch of studies about them, I don’t see that many innovations or at least anything that crucially changes the picture. I would be excited to be proven wrong, and am curious to know what you would characterize as advances in capability and methodology.
I am partly basing my impression on Mellers & Tetlock (2019), they write “We gradually got better at improving prediction polls with various behavioral and statistical interventions, but it proved stubbornly hard to improve prediction markets.” And my impression is that they experimented quite a bit with them.
As a semi-active user of prediction markets and a person who looked up a bunch of studies about them, I don’t see that many innovations or at least anything that crucially changes the picture. I would be excited to be proven wrong, and am curious to know what you would characterize as advances in capability and methodology.
I am partly basing my impression on Mellers & Tetlock (2019), they write “We gradually got better at improving prediction polls with various behavioral and statistical interventions, but it proved stubbornly hard to improve prediction markets.” And my impression is that they experimented quite a bit with them.