These claims about Superforecasting are eye-catching. However, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions when most of the research cited doesn’t in fact include Superforecasters. In our view, it isn’t a matter of Superforecasters vs experts: the Boolean is “and” as much as possible to get the best results.
These claims about Superforecasting are eye-catching. However, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions when most of the research cited doesn’t in fact include Superforecasters. In our view, it isn’t a matter of Superforecasters vs experts: the Boolean is “and” as much as possible to get the best results.
For those who are interested in taking a deeper dive into the peer-reviewed literature, though, take a look here:
https://goodjudgment.com/about/the-science-of-superforecasting/
Some of our work on combining forecasters and experts is here:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/better-crystal-ball
https://warontherocks.com/2021/07/did-sino-american-relations-have-to-deteriorate-a-better-way-of-doing-counterfactual-thought-experiments/