The true performance difference between forecasters and CIA analysts with classified info (0%??)
What Goldstein found about a related but quite different quantity (34.7%)
What NPR etc reported (30%)
The important misconception is using (2) as if it was (1). Sentence A is about misunderstanding the relationship between the above three things, so it seems fine to use the number from (3). We haven’t seen anyone with misconceptions about the precise 34.7% figure and we’re not attributing the error to Goldstein et al.
There’s three things
The true performance difference between forecasters and CIA analysts with classified info (0%??)
What Goldstein found about a related but quite different quantity (34.7%)
What NPR etc reported (30%)
The important misconception is using (2) as if it was (1). Sentence A is about misunderstanding the relationship between the above three things, so it seems fine to use the number from (3). We haven’t seen anyone with misconceptions about the precise 34.7% figure and we’re not attributing the error to Goldstein et al.