In making this claim you completely overlook the fundamental quantitative reasoning you need to make to tackle the question of impact.
Those issues are addressed in different sections. Scope just refers to what % of the future people are affected.
Ending malaria and “solving” love will give everyone a better life for at best 80 years, solving aging for… 1000 years as a lower bound.
This is reasoning from the lifetime utility of a given individual. I think that’s incorrect. Assume population size remains the same; if there are 10 people living 100 years, that’s comparable to one person living 1000 years, save for the unfortunate experiences surrounding death. OTOH, if we imagine 10 people living 1000 years, the principal advantage is not to be understood as improved quality of life, but rather as an increase in population size over time. So I give credit to anti-aging both for making mortality/morbidity very rare, and for increasing the population size.
I’ve only skimmed your part 1 LEV post so I may be missing something. But the way I see it, if you assign full QALYs for the 1000 years, you are doing one of two things: 1) assuming that the fertility rate (births per person per year) will not decline as a result of the greater population, or 2) not worried about the foregone births. I presume the population will grow as a result of solving aging, but not to the extent that is naively implied by assuming that fertility remains constant.
I implicitly assumed that both of these interventions are going to happen at some point anyway, and early research can just shift them forwards.
Yes, I addressed everything you wrote over and over in multiple comments and in my posts. You should read part 1 carefully and also Aging Research and Population Ethics.
Those issues are addressed in different sections. Scope just refers to what % of the future people are affected.
This is reasoning from the lifetime utility of a given individual. I think that’s incorrect. Assume population size remains the same; if there are 10 people living 100 years, that’s comparable to one person living 1000 years, save for the unfortunate experiences surrounding death. OTOH, if we imagine 10 people living 1000 years, the principal advantage is not to be understood as improved quality of life, but rather as an increase in population size over time. So I give credit to anti-aging both for making mortality/morbidity very rare, and for increasing the population size.
I’ve only skimmed your part 1 LEV post so I may be missing something. But the way I see it, if you assign full QALYs for the 1000 years, you are doing one of two things: 1) assuming that the fertility rate (births per person per year) will not decline as a result of the greater population, or 2) not worried about the foregone births. I presume the population will grow as a result of solving aging, but not to the extent that is naively implied by assuming that fertility remains constant.
I implicitly assumed that both of these interventions are going to happen at some point anyway, and early research can just shift them forwards.
Yes, I addressed everything you wrote over and over in multiple comments and in my posts. You should read part 1 carefully and also Aging Research and Population Ethics.
Read both and still don’t see anything to contradict my post, unless you are assuming “person-affecting” ethics.