Well, regarding Anthropic at least, this particular bet may be lucky, but if you make a bunch of high-variance bets and one of them turns out in your favor, is that still just luck?
Crypto prices in general also turned out in their favour, and without having looked into it closely I’d guess both of those bets paying off were necessary for people to get paid back,
If the bankruptcy hadn’t forced dollarization all of FTX’s customer deposits, I’m guessing they still wouldn’t be able to pay everyone back today,
Customer money wasn’t supposed to be going into bets with any variance. Having a diversified portfolio reduces variance but doesn’t eliminate it (and anyway I suspect FTX’s portfolio wasn’t in reality very diversified, given that tech stocks and crypto have historically been pretty correlated)
Well, regarding Anthropic at least, this particular bet may be lucky, but if you make a bunch of high-variance bets and one of them turns out in your favor, is that still just luck?
Crypto prices in general also turned out in their favour, and without having looked into it closely I’d guess both of those bets paying off were necessary for people to get paid back,
If the bankruptcy hadn’t forced dollarization all of FTX’s customer deposits, I’m guessing they still wouldn’t be able to pay everyone back today,
Customer money wasn’t supposed to be going into bets with any variance. Having a diversified portfolio reduces variance but doesn’t eliminate it (and anyway I suspect FTX’s portfolio wasn’t in reality very diversified, given that tech stocks and crypto have historically been pretty correlated)