I would say if we use other people’s judgment as a guide for our own, it’s an argument for the belief in the divine/God/the supernatural and it becomes hard to say Christianity and Islam have negligible probability. So rules that are like “ignore tiny probability” don’t work. Your idea of discounting probability as utility rises still works but we’ve talked about why I don’t think that’s compelling enough.
I don’t have good survey evidence on Pascal’s Wager, but I think a lot of religious believers would agree with the general concept- don’t risk your soul, life is short and eternity is long, and other phrases like that seem to reference the basic idea.
This guy converted on his deathbed because of the wager (John von Neumann).
I would say if we use other people’s judgment as a guide for our own, it’s an argument for the belief in the divine/God/the supernatural and it becomes hard to say Christianity and Islam have negligible probability. So rules that are like “ignore tiny probability” don’t work. Your idea of discounting probability as utility rises still works but we’ve talked about why I don’t think that’s compelling enough.
I don’t have good survey evidence on Pascal’s Wager, but I think a lot of religious believers would agree with the general concept- don’t risk your soul, life is short and eternity is long, and other phrases like that seem to reference the basic idea.
This guy converted on his deathbed because of the wager (John von Neumann).