Thanks! The Cantelli bound is a basic result of probability theory, so I think it’s hard to change chess such that it would no longer apply at all.
But an experiment I would be interested to do is to run an engine with varying parameters and see how much this changes performance. If the “deliberate until you don’t see many sign flips” approach only works because we have a precisely-tuned definition of “many”, then I do think this weakens the analogy.
Thanks! The Cantelli bound is a basic result of probability theory, so I think it’s hard to change chess such that it would no longer apply at all.
But an experiment I would be interested to do is to run an engine with varying parameters and see how much this changes performance. If the “deliberate until you don’t see many sign flips” approach only works because we have a precisely-tuned definition of “many”, then I do think this weakens the analogy.