I wonder if the probability L = 90% is an overestimate of the likelihood of lasting indefinitely. It seems reasonable that the regime could end because of a global catastrophe that is not existential, reverting us to preindustrial society. For example, nuclear war could end regimes if/while there are multiple states, or climate change could cause massive famine. On the other hand, is it reasonable to think that BCI would create so much stability that even the death of a significant proportion of its populace would not be able to end it?
I wonder if the probability L = 90% is an overestimate of the likelihood of lasting indefinitely. It seems reasonable that the regime could end because of a global catastrophe that is not existential, reverting us to preindustrial society. For example, nuclear war could end regimes if/while there are multiple states, or climate change could cause massive famine. On the other hand, is it reasonable to think that BCI would create so much stability that even the death of a significant proportion of its populace would not be able to end it?