Vasco Grilo🔸 comments on The Industrial Explosion

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Thanks for the post, Rose and Tom.

We think the industrial explosion will unfold in three stages:

1. AI-directed human labour, where AI-directed human labourers drive productivity gains in physical capabilities.

   1. We argue this could increase physical output by 10X within a few years.

2. Fully autonomous robot factories, where AI-directed robots (and other physical actuators) replace human physical labour.

   1. We argue that, with current physical technology and full automation of cognitive labour, this physical infrastructure could self-replicate about once per year.

   2. 1-year robot doubling times is very fast!

3. Nanotechnology, where physical actuators on a very small scale build arbitrary structures within physical limits.

   1. We argue, based on experience curves and biological analogies, that we could eventually get nanobots that replicate in a few days or weeks. Again, this is very fast!

All of these seem super unlikely to me. Are you open to any concrete bets?