Executive summary: Trump’s proposed tariff increases could push approximately 2 million people into extreme poverty globally, an impact that’s largely ignored in policy discussions focusing on domestic economic effects.
Key points:
Economic research shows U.S. tariffs significantly reduce income for foreign workers and increase poverty rates abroad
A 2.5% increase in average weighted tariffs (to 5% total) could increase global poverty by 0.285 percentage points
Estimate of 2 million additional people in extreme poverty is likely conservative, as it excludes secondary effects on growth and employment
Calculation based on World Bank research on trade preferences, though author notes significant uncertainty in the estimates
Foreign workers affected by tariffs typically have much lower incomes than American workers, making them particularly vulnerable to economic harm
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Trump’s proposed tariff increases could push approximately 2 million people into extreme poverty globally, an impact that’s largely ignored in policy discussions focusing on domestic economic effects.
Key points:
Economic research shows U.S. tariffs significantly reduce income for foreign workers and increase poverty rates abroad
A 2.5% increase in average weighted tariffs (to 5% total) could increase global poverty by 0.285 percentage points
Estimate of 2 million additional people in extreme poverty is likely conservative, as it excludes secondary effects on growth and employment
Calculation based on World Bank research on trade preferences, though author notes significant uncertainty in the estimates
Foreign workers affected by tariffs typically have much lower incomes than American workers, making them particularly vulnerable to economic harm
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.