I am pre-registering my forecasts for the amount of prize money each essay will win. In brief, I expect that these three essays will win just over half the prize money:
Utilitarians Should Accept that Some Suffering Cannot be “Offset”
Are longtermist ideas getting harder to find?
Discussions of Longtermism should focus on the problem of Unawareness
I didn’t spend much time on these forecasts though—mainly it is based on karma with an adjustment based on my subjective judgement of the essay’s title/summary.
I am pre-registering my forecasts for the amount of prize money each essay will win. In brief, I expect that these three essays will win just over half the prize money:
Utilitarians Should Accept that Some Suffering Cannot be “Offset”
Are longtermist ideas getting harder to find?
Discussions of Longtermism should focus on the problem of Unawareness
I didn’t spend much time on these forecasts though—mainly it is based on karma with an adjustment based on my subjective judgement of the essay’s title/summary.