Executive summary: China is unlikely to catch up to the US and its allies in developing transformative AI due to political and demographic constraints, though reforms after Xi could change this.
Key points:
Most countries get stuck at middle income status, but China has already reached the world average GDP per capita.
Lack of democracy and rule of law, high corruption, and demographic issues could prevent China from reaching high income status.
Xi has consolidated power and moved away from political reforms needed for innovation.
However, there could be openings for change after Xi’s death.
China is running out of easy sources of growth and needs to innovate at the technological frontier.
But export manufacturing is threatened by rising wages, and China faces rapid population aging.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: China is unlikely to catch up to the US and its allies in developing transformative AI due to political and demographic constraints, though reforms after Xi could change this.
Key points:
Most countries get stuck at middle income status, but China has already reached the world average GDP per capita.
Lack of democracy and rule of law, high corruption, and demographic issues could prevent China from reaching high income status.
Xi has consolidated power and moved away from political reforms needed for innovation.
However, there could be openings for change after Xi’s death.
China is running out of easy sources of growth and needs to innovate at the technological frontier.
But export manufacturing is threatened by rising wages, and China faces rapid population aging.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.