Yeah, it’s difficult to intuit, but I think that’s pretty clearly because we’re bad at imagining the aggregate harm of billions (or trillions) of mosquito bites. One way to reason around this is to think: - I would rather get punched once in the arm than once in the ribs, but I would rather get punched once in the ribs than 10x in the arm - I’m fine with disaggregating, and saying that I would prefer a world where 1 person gets punched in the gut to a world where 10 people get punched in the arm - I’m also fine with multiplying those numbers by 10 and saying that I would prefer 10 people PiG to 100 people PiA - It’s harder to intuit this for really really big numbers, but I am happy to attribute that to a failure of my imagination, rather than some bizarre effect where TU only holds for small populations - I’m also fine intensifying the first harm by a little bit so long as the populations are offset (e.g. I would prefer 1 person punched in the face to 1000 people punched in the arm) - Again, it’s hard to continue to intuit this for really extreme harms and really large populations, but I am more willing to attribute that to cognitive failures and biases than to a bizarre ethical rule
Yeah, it’s difficult to intuit, but I think that’s pretty clearly because we’re bad at imagining the aggregate harm of billions (or trillions) of mosquito bites. One way to reason around this is to think:
- I would rather get punched once in the arm than once in the ribs, but I would rather get punched once in the ribs than 10x in the arm
- I’m fine with disaggregating, and saying that I would prefer a world where 1 person gets punched in the gut to a world where 10 people get punched in the arm
- I’m also fine with multiplying those numbers by 10 and saying that I would prefer 10 people PiG to 100 people PiA
- It’s harder to intuit this for really really big numbers, but I am happy to attribute that to a failure of my imagination, rather than some bizarre effect where TU only holds for small populations
- I’m also fine intensifying the first harm by a little bit so long as the populations are offset (e.g. I would prefer 1 person punched in the face to 1000 people punched in the arm)
- Again, it’s hard to continue to intuit this for really extreme harms and really large populations, but I am more willing to attribute that to cognitive failures and biases than to a bizarre ethical rule
Etc etc.