Nice post, I agree with the broad point. Thanks for writing!
I think I disagree with the claim [regarding the expert sample of economists] “I think they simply haven’t thought very much about the impact of AI on economic growth.” A quick skim suggests the sample selection was for economists actively working on the effects of AI.
I also think 3.5% growth is under-ratedly big. Absent AI, my guess is that most economists would predict a growth slowdown (demographic drag, ideas getting harder to find, etc.) The counterfactual rate could be something like ~1.75 in 2050. If so—this implies rapid AI progress would 2x the rate of economic growth relative to no AI. That’s a big deal!
Nice post, I agree with the broad point. Thanks for writing!
I think I disagree with the claim [regarding the expert sample of economists] “I think they simply haven’t thought very much about the impact of AI on economic growth.” A quick skim suggests the sample selection was for economists actively working on the effects of AI.
I also think 3.5% growth is under-ratedly big. Absent AI, my guess is that most economists would predict a growth slowdown (demographic drag, ideas getting harder to find, etc.) The counterfactual rate could be something like ~1.75 in 2050. If so—this implies rapid AI progress would 2x the rate of economic growth relative to no AI. That’s a big deal!