If this trend continues, AI could be doing tasks that take humans a month within a few years.
Actually, if this trend continues, AI could be doing tasks that take humans a month in less than a year. Claude Mythos Preview (early) has a task length of “likely at least 16 hours” on the METR graph. Assuming its task length is 16 hours and extrapolating the 3-month doubling time you mention:
16 hours = 960 minutes. For a working month (~160 hours = 9,600 min), that’s 10× further → log₂(10) ≈ 3.32 doublings → ~10 months.
I’ll also point out that AI is already doing some tasks that take humans a month. E.g. GPT-5.4 Pro solved this open problem from the FrontierMath benchmark, which they estimate would take a human expert 1-3 months to solve.
Actually, if this trend continues, AI could be doing tasks that take humans a month in less than a year. Claude Mythos Preview (early) has a task length of “likely at least 16 hours” on the METR graph. Assuming its task length is 16 hours and extrapolating the 3-month doubling time you mention:
16 hours = 960 minutes. For a working month (~160 hours = 9,600 min), that’s 10× further → log₂(10) ≈ 3.32 doublings → ~10 months.
I’ll also point out that AI is already doing some tasks that take humans a month. E.g. GPT-5.4 Pro solved this open problem from the FrontierMath benchmark, which they estimate would take a human expert 1-3 months to solve.