Thank you for writing this survey of the evidence. I initially assumed from the title that you were going to present evidence that the attitudes of the general public are changing towards AI, rather than arguments intended to effect a change in their attitudes.
I feel compelled to note that Anthropic and OpenAI report ARR differently, making direct comparisons difficult. So, that chart could be misleading. For the purposes of this discussion, it is probably fine, as it captures the acceleration of growth of these companies, and we aren’t trying to directly compare them to each other.
I do think that current-generation AI capabilities are already at the point where they could drive significant growth in the economy with an adequate inference infrastructure and time to develop workflows. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that the revenue growth of these companies may not be direct evidence that AGI is imminent in the technical sense. It seems possible to me that AGI could be stalled by technical challenges even as current-generation and similar AIs drive significant economic growth.
Thank you for writing this survey of the evidence. I initially assumed from the title that you were going to present evidence that the attitudes of the general public are changing towards AI, rather than arguments intended to effect a change in their attitudes.
I feel compelled to note that Anthropic and OpenAI report ARR differently, making direct comparisons difficult. So, that chart could be misleading. For the purposes of this discussion, it is probably fine, as it captures the acceleration of growth of these companies, and we aren’t trying to directly compare them to each other.
I do think that current-generation AI capabilities are already at the point where they could drive significant growth in the economy with an adequate inference infrastructure and time to develop workflows. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that the revenue growth of these companies may not be direct evidence that AGI is imminent in the technical sense. It seems possible to me that AGI could be stalled by technical challenges even as current-generation and similar AIs drive significant economic growth.