The expert survey results are also just compatible with “short timelines”, strictly speaking, if that means “AI that can do any work a human can for similar cost”. If economists think that even that won’t produce explosive growth but just a modest speed up, then they will not necessarily predict super-high growth by 2050 even if you specify that AGI arrives in 2030.
The expert survey results are also just compatible with “short timelines”, strictly speaking, if that means “AI that can do any work a human can for similar cost”. If economists think that even that won’t produce explosive growth but just a modest speed up, then they will not necessarily predict super-high growth by 2050 even if you specify that AGI arrives in 2030.