I’d like to make a public bet with someone about Anthropic’s Q1 (Jan-Mar) or Q2 (Apr-Jun) 2027 GAAP revenue. I want to bet that Anthropic’s GAAP revenue in Q1 or Q2 will be significantly less than what you’d expect if you just extrapolate its non-GAAP revenue CAGR over the last 3 years.
By my math (which merits double-checking), we would expect GAAP revenue of around $70 billion to $80 billion in Q1 or Q2 if we were just to extrapolate in this way. This assuredly will not happen, so I want to win a bet against one (or more!) of the people saying that it’s reasonable to just extrapolate Anthropic’s revenue CAGR indefinitely. This is a fun exercise and proves an important point about how you can’t just extrapolate trends like this.
I’d want to bet a nominal amount like $20 for the charity of the winner’s choice. Bets like this are legally dubious and not legally enforceable, so it’s all for fun and symbolic purposes anyway.
The best way to contact me is either through email or Substack messages. (Please don’t try to contact me via the EA Forum because I probably won’t see it.)
I’d like to make a public bet with someone about Anthropic’s Q1 (Jan-Mar) or Q2 (Apr-Jun) 2027 GAAP revenue. I want to bet that Anthropic’s GAAP revenue in Q1 or Q2 will be significantly less than what you’d expect if you just extrapolate its non-GAAP revenue CAGR over the last 3 years.
By my math (which merits double-checking), we would expect GAAP revenue of around $70 billion to $80 billion in Q1 or Q2 if we were just to extrapolate in this way. This assuredly will not happen, so I want to win a bet against one (or more!) of the people saying that it’s reasonable to just extrapolate Anthropic’s revenue CAGR indefinitely. This is a fun exercise and proves an important point about how you can’t just extrapolate trends like this.
I’d want to bet a nominal amount like $20 for the charity of the winner’s choice. Bets like this are legally dubious and not legally enforceable, so it’s all for fun and symbolic purposes anyway.
The best way to contact me is either through email or Substack messages. (Please don’t try to contact me via the EA Forum because I probably won’t see it.)