Would you be willing to agree to a bet on this? Anthropic’s revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 570% over the last 3 years. If this trend continued for 1 more year, then Anthropic would hit $200 billion in annualized revenue less than a year from now.
However, Anthropic’s own revenue projection is for $150 billion in 2029. If we infer from Anthropic’s valuation, its investors are implicitly pricing in much slower revenue growth over the next 3 years than a 570% CAGR.[1]
As an additional data point, an HSBC analyst projected $241 billion in revenue for Anthropic in 2030. Coatue Management predicted $200 billion in revenue in 2031.
So, I propose a bet: if by June 1, 2027, Anthropic has at least $200 billion in annualized revenue, you win. If by June 1, 2027, Anthropic has less than $200 billion in annualized revenue, I win.
I would be happy to bet for a nominal amount like $20 to the charity of the winner’s choice.
I’m also open to shorter-term bets. For instance, I would bet that Anthropic will not hit $125 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026 (which is what extrapolation would imply).
A sustained 570% CAGR would imply Anthropic will hit $9 trillion in annualized revenue in 2029. Let’s apply a super conservative revenue multiple, 1.0 (unreasonably low). Let’s also apply a super steep discount rate, 25% (way too high for a normal megacap tech company). Even with these assumptions, we still get a $4.6 trillion valuation for Anthropic. Anthropic’s current valuation is under $1 trillion.
Would you be willing to agree to a bet on this? Anthropic’s revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 570% over the last 3 years. If this trend continued for 1 more year, then Anthropic would hit $200 billion in annualized revenue less than a year from now.
However, Anthropic’s own revenue projection is for $150 billion in 2029. If we infer from Anthropic’s valuation, its investors are implicitly pricing in much slower revenue growth over the next 3 years than a 570% CAGR.[1]
As an additional data point, an HSBC analyst projected $241 billion in revenue for Anthropic in 2030. Coatue Management predicted $200 billion in revenue in 2031.
So, I propose a bet: if by June 1, 2027, Anthropic has at least $200 billion in annualized revenue, you win. If by June 1, 2027, Anthropic has less than $200 billion in annualized revenue, I win.
I would be happy to bet for a nominal amount like $20 to the charity of the winner’s choice.
I’m also open to shorter-term bets. For instance, I would bet that Anthropic will not hit $125 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026 (which is what extrapolation would imply).
A sustained 570% CAGR would imply Anthropic will hit $9 trillion in annualized revenue in 2029. Let’s apply a super conservative revenue multiple, 1.0 (unreasonably low). Let’s also apply a super steep discount rate, 25% (way too high for a normal megacap tech company). Even with these assumptions, we still get a $4.6 trillion valuation for Anthropic. Anthropic’s current valuation is under $1 trillion.