Good post—I appreciate this synthesis of evidence and agree with your conclusions. One (minor) point of disagreement:
Likewise, they expected the labor force participation rate to be 55%, down only slightly from today’s roughly 61%.
I’d characterize a 6 percentage point decline as fairly substantial rather than “only slightly.” In absolute terms, 6pp may not sound like much, but relative to historical variation in labor force participation, it’s quite large.
Since measurement began in the 1940s, the labor force participation rate has remained within a relatively narrow 58–67% band. Even the COVID shock was associated with only about a 3pp decline. That historical range also spans the transition from a predominantly male workforce to much higher female labor force participation.
Good post—I appreciate this synthesis of evidence and agree with your conclusions. One (minor) point of disagreement:
I’d characterize a 6 percentage point decline as fairly substantial rather than “only slightly.” In absolute terms, 6pp may not sound like much, but relative to historical variation in labor force participation, it’s quite large.
Since measurement began in the 1940s, the labor force participation rate has remained within a relatively narrow 58–67% band. Even the COVID shock was associated with only about a 3pp decline. That historical range also spans the transition from a predominantly male workforce to much higher female labor force participation.