Thanks to the discord squad (EA Corner) who helped with this.
Casual, not-resolvable-by-bet prediction:
Basically EA is going to splinter into “trying to preserve permanent counter culture” and “institutionalizing”
I wrote yesterday about “the borg property”, that we shift like the sands in response to arguments and evidence, which amounts to assimilating critics into our throngs.
As a premise, there exists a basic march of subcultures marching from counterculture to institution: abolitionists went from wildly unpopular to champions commonsense morality over the course of some hundreds of years, I think feminism is reasonably institutionalized now but had countercultural roots, let’s say 150 years. Drugs from weed to hallucinogens have counterculture roots, and are still a little counterculture, but may not always be. BLM has gotten way more popular over the last 10 years.
But the borg property seems to imply that we’ll not ossify (into, begin metaphor torturing sequence: rocks) enough to follow that march, not entirely. Rocks turn into sand via erosion, we should expect bottlenecks to reverse erosion (sand turning into rocks), i.e. the constant shifting of the dunes with the wind.
Consequentialist cosmopolitans, rats, people who like to multiply stuff, whomever else may have to rebrand if institutionalized EA got too hegemonic, and I’ve heard a claim that this is already happening in the “rats who arent EAs” scene in the bay, that there are ambitious rats who think the ivy league & congress strategy is a huge turn-off.
Of interest is the idea that we may live in a world where “serious careerists who agree with leadership about PR are the only people allowed in the moskovitz, tuna, sbf ecosystems”, perhaps this is a cue from the koch or thiel ecosystems (perhaps not: I don’t really know how they operate). Now the core branding of EA may align itself with that careerism ecosystem, or it may align itself with higher variance stuff. I’m uncertain what will happen, I only expect splintering not any proposition about who lands where.
A manifold market could look like “will there exist charities founded and/or staffed by people who were high-engagement EAs for a number of years before starting these projects, but are not endorsed by EA’s billionaires”. This may capture part of it.
Thanks to the discord squad (EA Corner) who helped with this.
Casual, not-resolvable-by-bet prediction:
Basically EA is going to splinter into “trying to preserve permanent counter culture” and “institutionalizing”
I wrote yesterday about “the borg property”, that we shift like the sands in response to arguments and evidence, which amounts to assimilating critics into our throngs.
As a premise, there exists a basic march of subcultures marching from counterculture to institution: abolitionists went from wildly unpopular to champions commonsense morality over the course of some hundreds of years, I think feminism is reasonably institutionalized now but had countercultural roots, let’s say 150 years. Drugs from weed to hallucinogens have counterculture roots, and are still a little counterculture, but may not always be. BLM has gotten way more popular over the last 10 years.
But the borg property seems to imply that we’ll not ossify (into, begin metaphor torturing sequence: rocks) enough to follow that march, not entirely. Rocks turn into sand via erosion, we should expect bottlenecks to reverse erosion (sand turning into rocks), i.e. the constant shifting of the dunes with the wind.
Consequentialist cosmopolitans, rats, people who like to multiply stuff, whomever else may have to rebrand if institutionalized EA got too hegemonic, and I’ve heard a claim that this is already happening in the “rats who arent EAs” scene in the bay, that there are ambitious rats who think the ivy league & congress strategy is a huge turn-off.
Of interest is the idea that we may live in a world where “serious careerists who agree with leadership about PR are the only people allowed in the moskovitz, tuna, sbf ecosystems”, perhaps this is a cue from the koch or thiel ecosystems (perhaps not: I don’t really know how they operate). Now the core branding of EA may align itself with that careerism ecosystem, or it may align itself with higher variance stuff. I’m uncertain what will happen, I only expect splintering not any proposition about who lands where.
Expected and obligate citation.
Ok, maybe a little resolvable by bet
A manifold market could look like “will there exist charities founded and/or staffed by people who were high-engagement EAs for a number of years before starting these projects, but are not endorsed by EA’s billionaires”. This may capture part of it.