It does seem like an optimistic expectation that there will be an arrival of entities that are amazingly superior to us. This is not far-fetched though. Computers already surpass humans’ capacities on several thought processes, and therefore have already demonstrated that they are better in some aspects of intelligence. And we’ve created robots that can outperform humans in virtually all physical tasks. So, the expectation is backed by evidence.
Expecting super AGI differs from expecting the arrival of a messiah-like figure in that instead of expecting a future in which an entity will come on its own and end all our suffering and improve our lives immeasurably, we are doing the work to make AI improve our lives. Also, the expectations differ in how we prepare for them. In the case of the messiah, it seems like acting moral so we can get into heaven might be vague, unchanging, and random. On the other hand, in the case of super AGI, AI safety work is constantly changing and learning new things. However, it is still interesting that the two expectations bear a resemblance.
And we’ve created robots that can outperform humans in virtually all physical tasks.
Not that this is at all central to your point, but I don’t think this is true. We’re capable of building robots that move with more force and precision than humans, but mostly only in environments that are pretty simple or heavily customised for them. The cutting edge in robots moving over long distances or over rough terrain (for example) seems pretty far behind where humans are. Similarly, I believe fruit-picking is very hard to automate, in ways that seem likely to generalise to lots of similar tasks.
I also don’t think we’re very close to artificial smell, although possibly people aren’t working on it very much?
It does seem like an optimistic expectation that there will be an arrival of entities that are amazingly superior to us. This is not far-fetched though. Computers already surpass humans’ capacities on several thought processes, and therefore have already demonstrated that they are better in some aspects of intelligence. And we’ve created robots that can outperform humans in virtually all physical tasks. So, the expectation is backed by evidence.
Expecting super AGI differs from expecting the arrival of a messiah-like figure in that instead of expecting a future in which an entity will come on its own and end all our suffering and improve our lives immeasurably, we are doing the work to make AI improve our lives. Also, the expectations differ in how we prepare for them. In the case of the messiah, it seems like acting moral so we can get into heaven might be vague, unchanging, and random. On the other hand, in the case of super AGI, AI safety work is constantly changing and learning new things. However, it is still interesting that the two expectations bear a resemblance.
Not that this is at all central to your point, but I don’t think this is true. We’re capable of building robots that move with more force and precision than humans, but mostly only in environments that are pretty simple or heavily customised for them. The cutting edge in robots moving over long distances or over rough terrain (for example) seems pretty far behind where humans are. Similarly, I believe fruit-picking is very hard to automate, in ways that seem likely to generalise to lots of similar tasks.
I also don’t think we’re very close to artificial smell, although possibly people aren’t working on it very much?
Yes, I think you are right. Sorry, I made too broad of a statement when I only had things like strength and speed in mind.