Chetty’s recent work is methodologically ahead of the curve, and I hope to see many more economists using large-scale administrative data to address the big questions. But the paper I’ve nominated—the “Lost Einsteins” paper—is exceptionally interesting, and I think that within a few years it will start to be seen as really important.
This is, first, because it very palpably demonstrates that concerns about inequality and economic efficiency and long-run growth are inextricably linked. If you accept endogenous growth theory as a plausible account, then the Lost Einsteins paper suggests (actually, states explicitly) that various kinds of inequality can slow innovation and therefore growth.
Second, I think that this is a fairly EA-relevant paper. It’s clear that individual inventors or small groups of innovators (Haber/Bosch, Borlaug, Tesla, Robert Noyce) can alter the course of history in a meaningful way. It’s impossible to estimate the lost social value of the lost Einsteins, but I think it’s plausible to suggest that it could be significant.
I nominate Raj Chetty’s Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation, which builds on his and his collaborators’ impressive other work using administrative data to estimate intergenerational economic mobility.
Chetty’s recent work is methodologically ahead of the curve, and I hope to see many more economists using large-scale administrative data to address the big questions. But the paper I’ve nominated—the “Lost Einsteins” paper—is exceptionally interesting, and I think that within a few years it will start to be seen as really important.
This is, first, because it very palpably demonstrates that concerns about inequality and economic efficiency and long-run growth are inextricably linked. If you accept endogenous growth theory as a plausible account, then the Lost Einsteins paper suggests (actually, states explicitly) that various kinds of inequality can slow innovation and therefore growth.
Second, I think that this is a fairly EA-relevant paper. It’s clear that individual inventors or small groups of innovators (Haber/Bosch, Borlaug, Tesla, Robert Noyce) can alter the course of history in a meaningful way. It’s impossible to estimate the lost social value of the lost Einsteins, but I think it’s plausible to suggest that it could be significant.